Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 3 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 17:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 62 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. One more was recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 12:49PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 538,551 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- March 16, 2026 · score 43 · 4.8 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 48 · 5.7 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 48 · 5.7 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 48 out of 100, at 82 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 48 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 82% |
| Coordinates | 38.4980, -77.6451 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (27 km) |
| Population Exposed | 538.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T16:49:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7e5c81f9ff3559e3104fd80dfddd1405 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Charles, MD; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; Montgomery, MD; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Prince William, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Alexandria, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; Appomattox, VA; Buckingham, VA and 2 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 12:49PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T13:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 5 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7e5c81f9ff3559e3104fd80dfddd14052365d6d6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7641fd00eb3cee58a94707dc8d5e2e7bc7848bff.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.df5c534aa15b8c8badb67e959d34843ee8e9c222.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.107aac724d133158185122d2b98dd10ce5cda7ee.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.57ebd17940a0a388d9264059148e63236c6367e0.002.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 1 N McMullen |
| Spc County | Greene |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | A tree was down along South River Road and Entry Run Road. (LWX) |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"spc_wind_38.36_-78.46_51","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773670140000,"latitude":38.36,"longitude":-78.46}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Fredericksburg?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 48/100, near Fredericksburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.